Nov 2006
SO I WENT deer hunting a few weeks ago. Or rather, my guide went deer hunting, and I tagged along for the experience. (I've fired a shotgun once or twice, but never a rifle. One of these days.)
We headed to a rancher's field in Paradise Valley, about an hour outside Winnemucca, Nevada. Winnemucca (named after Chief Winnemucca of the Northern Paiute tribe) is a flyspeck mining town with little claim to fame, other than prominent mention in a Johnny Cash song.
Deer hunters get an early start. We got up at "0-dark-30," as Winnemuccans like to say, and hopped in the truck with plenty of hot coffee. Nothing like the rumble of a diesel on a freezing fall morning, the roads empty and the moon still bright. We were walking the rancher's fields by 4:15 a.m.
For me, the city-slicker tagalong with no rifle in his hands, the best part was hearing the coyotes greet the dawn.
Just as the morning sun begins to make its presence known -- when it's still dark but daybreak is tickling the back of your neck -- the coyotes of Paradise Valley are apt to let loose. That morning it sounded like a dozen or two at least. I had no idea whether they were grouped together, or just chiming in from all over the place. The yipping and howling had a distinctly playful sound... I imagined a throng of celebrating hippie bikers, raising their bottles in ceremonial toast.
The second best part for me was seeing the light break over the fields...then watching the moon slide behind the Sierras. With the contrast of mountains against sky, you can literally track the moon's descent -- giving a visceral sense of the Earth's rotation and the passage of time.
OK, to the nitty-gritty. You're probably waiting for this to go somewhere, so here goes.
One could say there are two distinct "schools" of deer hunting. We're not talking theological schism here, but the differences are significant. (As a neutral third party, I have occasionally brokered peace among dissenters on the topic.)
The first school -- call it the "wham-bam" approach -- is all about getting in and getting out. You "execute a predawn insertion," bag your alfalfa-fattened doe, and get home. It's all about the venison. Drop and pop, minimal patience required.
The second school -- call it the "experiential" approach -- is much more about hunting as an experience. The hunt becomes an end in itself, an activity for its own sake. You have the same ultimate goal, but the attitude is more relaxed. There's no feeling of urgency, and more of an emphasis on taking things in. Going home empty-handed isn't a failure, because you take a pleasurable experience with you... and you know there will always be another day.
The wham-bam approach is all business, whereas the experiential approach has a relaxed, contemplative component. And yet, ironically, the experiential approach is the more successful over time.
The wham-bammers have less patience, so they spend less time in the fields. They are constantly thinking about the warmth of the truck, so their toes get cold faster. They get annoyed if bambi doesn't show up on schedule, and that annoyance puts a damper on their focus.
The hidden value of the experiential approach and the folly of wham-bam have parallels in the way markets work. I'll try to explain.
On a recent trip to New York, I had the opportunity to chat with a fund-of-funds manager (basically a hedge fund asset allocator) with a few hundred million under management. We discussed the ins and outs of the business; how his managers were performing; what his investors were focused on; and, of course, the latest hedgie gossip. (This was right around the time Amaranth was blowing up, by the way. It was all the street was talking about.)
When I asked this fund-of-funds pro what his investors placed the most emphasis on, his answer was telling. Most hedge funds live or die by their month-to-month returns. "You want to get that steady one or two percent each month," he told me. "Not too hot, not too cold. Just a little each month and you'll have it made."
The problem with that view is, Mr. Market is no Steady Eddie. Trading and investing opportunities aren't distributed evenly, like scoops of mashed potatoes in a cafeteria serving line. To get the real picture, the lunch lady would have to wield a range of variable scoops, from thimble-size to bucket-size. Some months you get a little, some months you get a lot. Sometimes a great idea pans out quickly, other times you have to wait. (And wait. And wait.)
That reality isn't good enough for most investors, though... they want that artificial curve, that psychic kick of seeing a little bit of uptick month in and month out. So a lot of hedge funds (not all, but a lot) go about the business of "manufacturing returns." They try to generate those basis points however possible, no matter what it takes.
This makes them consummate wham-bammers. If the doe (trading opportunity) doesn't make an appearance pronto, they're upset. If nothing happens for five minutes, their toes start to freeze. When you live and die by the clock like this, risky bets with immediate payouts start to look tempting. This short-term mentality thus leads to a lot of problems, like the overuse of leverage on "sure bets" that actually aren't. Most hedge fund blowups have some type of "sure thing" trade involved...a ridiculously leveraged position with 98% odds of booking a small profit. (The problem is that other 2% of the time, when everything goes kablooey.)
As you might have guessed, I am a proponent of the experiential school. I believe investors should takea bigger picture view and really try to understand the dynamics of what they're investing in. It's not about hustling in and hustling out...it's about developing conviction, getting a real handle on things, and being patient when required. That's the recipe for making excellent returns without undue risk.
One last comment. Though I disdain the "wham-bam" mentality, I have nothing against short-term trading opportunities. In fact, I love 'em. Lack of firearm experience notwithstanding, I cut my teeth in the Wild West commodity markets... so trading is practically in my DNA. (No, scratch that. It is in my DNA.)
But even here, in terms of shorter term trading, I believe the more patient "experiential" school wins out hands down.
How so? Because the virtues of patience apply in all time frames. The more patient you are, the more observant and selective you are. The more observant you are, the more you can see, hear, and understand. This puts you in better position when a truly great opportunity comes along.
While the wham-bammers are wasting their time trying to force a profit, getting distracted burning up their capital on subpar plays, the smart trader is patiently taking it all in...watching and waiting... lining up for that incredible shot.

