High Probability Trading
by Marcel Link
Jun 2005
Meat and Potatoes
In the poker movie Rounders, legendary old timer Joey Knish tries to save the hero, Mike McDermott, from the mother of all bad beats. Of course McDermott has to learn the hard way, as most all poker players (and traders) do. Marcel Link reminds me of Knish: a guy who's been around the block and pretty much seen it all. A grinder, trading to make a living... not going for the glory, just going for consistency. Bringing it home, month after month, and putting food on the table.
This book is the next best thing to having a brother, cousin or close friend in the business. Link is someone who knows the angles, has taken the bad beats, and can tell you the tricks of the trade and the mistakes to watch out for.
Right off the bat, wannabe traders are hit with hard facts: "In my opinion, to be realistic and have a fighting chance to succeed one should have a minimum of $25,000 to $50,000, a 3-year horizon, and a very understanding spouse." In the intro, Link also explains how his own personal 'tuition' period lasted seven years. These are tough numbers for a tough game, and I respect Link for not pulling any punches. Many books on trading, if not most, tend to gloss over harsh realities in order to keep the dabblers and daydreamers interested. Not this one.
This book will not make you a great trader, but that's not the point. It's more like a thorough recap of the fundamentals—the basic movements and processes that make up a trader's mindset. I wish I had a book like this when I was starting out. The road wouldn't have been any easier, but some of the key lessons might have 'sunk in' faster.
If you are experienced in the markets, or even just competent, you won't find much of anything new here. It's pretty much all meat-and-potatoes type stuff. You might find it refreshing, though, to have such a comprehensive reference of the 'basics' packed into one volume.
One caveat is that most of Link's examples are geared towards short-term trading, i.e. intraday, and are intentionally kept simple. So if you are a swing trader, more comfortable with longer timeframes, or looking for fancy moves, you might feel the book isn't geared to you as much. The basics are still the basics though, regardless of your time frame: core concepts like volatility, risk management, position sizing, reaction to news, and so on.
To become great, or even just good, you'll need to go well beyond the scope of High Probability Trading. But before you can be either of those, you have to lay a rock solid foundation. Link just might be the guy to help you do it.
